谨防“霍夫曼陷阱” 走重化工业“轻型化”道路

张洋

中央财经大学经济学院

内容摘要：从2002年下半年以来，重化工业浪潮在中国兴起，一直持续至今。是否需要大力发展重化工业以及如何发展重化工业引起了学术界的广泛争论。我们从中国发展时期的实际情况结合现实的国际条件出发，认为继续按照传统西方模式发展重化工业必然是不可为之，必将陷入“霍夫曼陷阱”。中国发展重化工业必须走“轻型化”道路，从投入要素、生产过程、产出三方面增加“软”要素和“轻型”要素比重，最终平稳完成工业化进程。

Abstract: Since the half year of 2002, the tide of heavy and chemical industry in China is rising. Today this tide doesn’t retreat. Needing or not and how to develop heavy and chemical industry caused a broad argument in academic circles. Based on the real national and international condition, we think that it can not continue to develop heavy and chemical industry according to the west traditional pattern. If China follow the old western way, it will fall in "the Hoffman trap ". China developing its own heavy and chemical industry must walk on the "light" road. For doing this, it should increase the "soft" and "light" element in the input, process and output of production, and ultimately this will makes it accomplish its industrialization course smoothly.