摘要：本文系统梳理了新冠疫情暴发后全球190个国家或地区消费提振政策的实施情况,采用逻辑回归模型,实证检验了一国(地区)政府是否实施消费提振政策及政策工具选择的影响因素,并采用随机森林模型对影响因素进行重要性排序。本文的主要研究发现包括:一是在重大外部冲击下,政府是否实施消费提振政策,主要是从社会、经济和政治等维度综合考虑,即老年人口占比越高、失业率越高、财政支出水平越低、选举程序多样性越强,该国(地区)政府实施消费提振政策的可能性越大;二是是否在发放现金的基础上额外发放消费券,主要是从政策效果、政策空间和实施方式等考虑,即储蓄率越高、第三产业占比越高、财政支出水平越高、法律制度完善度越低,该国(地区)政府发放消费券的可能性越大。本文的研究结论可为一国(地区)政府应对外部冲击制定消费提振政策提供国际借鉴和理论参考,并为中国采取消费券政策的选择提供理论和实证的支撑。

关键词：消费提振；消费券；现金发放

Title：Consumption Stimulating and Policy Choice Under the Impact of Covid -19 Epidemic Shock

Abstract：We analyzed the consumption-stimulating policies from 190 countries/ regions around the world since the outbreak of the Covid -19 Epidemic. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors that influence a country's decision to implement consumption-stimulating policies. The importance of these factors was ranked using the random forest model. Our findings include: First，economic,social，and political variables all affect whether a country implements consumption-stimulating policies. The higher the proportion of the elderly population， the higher the unemployment rate, the lower the level of fiscal spending and the more diverse the electoral process, the more likely it is that the government of that country will implement a consumption boosting policy. Second， policymakers mainly consider policy effect, policy space and implementation methods when deciding on whether to issue vouchers. The higher its savings rate， the higher its share of the tertiary sector, the higher its level of fiscal spending and the lower its level of legal system sophistication, the more likely the country's government is to issue vouchers. Our results can serve as reference for policy makers when deciding on how to react to external shocks through consumption-stimulating policies. Our conclusions also provide theoretical and empirical support for China's voucher policy.

Key Words：Consumption Stimulation Voucher Cash Subsidy

摘要：新冠疫情期间各级政府的财政调控是有为政府的典型实践。本文构建包含“疫情冲击”“财政分权”“异质性地区”的多部门动态随机一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,DSGE)模型,研究特殊时期央地两级政府和不同地区地方政府财政支出政策的“稳增长”和“稳就业”效果。研究发现:第一,新冠疫情冲击下发达地区GDP增长率和居民消费水平的下降幅度明显大于欠发达地区,欠发达地区劳动力就业受到的影响更明显;第二,央地财政支出均带动了经济复苏,地方政府财政支出对当地经济增长和就业的促进作用更明显;第三,中央和欠发达地区政府的投资性支出对私人消费和私人投资产生了“挤出效应”,发达地区投资性支出发挥了一定的引致效用;第四,地方政府的投资性支出带动了本地区和其他地区的就业,发达地区投资性支出对就业的促进作用更明显。未来需基于央地财政实力和各地经济现实,兼顾财政政策的短期和中长期效应,优化财政支出结构,强化地方政府职能,实现有效市场与有为政府的高效结合。

关键词：疫情冲击;地区异质性;有为政府;财政分权;财政支出

Title：Promising Government,Fiscal Decentralization and the Effectiveness of Central and Local Fiscal Expenditures:The Perspective of New Structural Economics

Abstract：The fiscal regulations of governments at all levels during the COVID-19 epidemic are typical practices of promising governments. This paper constructs a multi-sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes“epidemic impact”“fiscal decentralization”and “ heterogeneous regions"，and studies the effectiveness of fiscal expenditure of central and local governments. The study found that: first, under the impact of the epidemic, the decline in GDP growth and resident consumption in developed regions was greater than that in underdeveloped regions， and labor employment in underdeveloped regions was more significantly affected; second， central and local fiscal expenditures drove economic recovery ; the promotion effect of local government fiscal expenditure is more obvious than central government fiscal expenditure; third,the investment expenditure of the central government and the government of less developed regions has a“Crowding out effect"，investment expenditure in developed regions has played a certain positive role; fourth，investment expenditure of local governments has driven employment in different regions, and investment expenditure in developed regions is more effective. In the future, it is necessary to take into account the short-term, medium-term and long-term effects of fiscal control policies，optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures, strengthen the functions of local governments, and achieve an efficient combination of effective markets and promising governments.

Key Words：COVID-19ImpactRegional Heterogeneity Promising Government Fiscal Decentralization Fiscal Expenditure

摘要：本文研究债权结构、破产决策机制对企业价值的影响。针对可能出现的两类破产决策错误——第一类错误是“应当破产却选择不破产”,第二类错误是“不应破产却选择破产”——本文研究发现:第一,在债权结构方面,引入过多的次级债权人或大债权人,会导致“过少”的破产清算,使第一类错误的概率增加;相反,引入过多的优先债权人或小债权人,则会导致“过多”的破产清算,使第二类错误的概率增加。最优的债权结构取决于两方面效应的平衡。第二,在破产决策机制方面,过低的决定性多数值将增加第一类错误的概率,相反过高的决定性多数值则增加第二类错误的概率。最优的破产决策规则应根据不同债权结构特征的企业进行调整,使能够做出最优决策的债权人成为最终起决定性作用的“多数人”。本文为理解债权结构、破产决策机制与企业价值之间的关系,提供了一个一般性的理论框架。

关键词：债权结构;破产程序;企业治理;破产法

Title：         Debt   Structure,   Bankruptcy   Decision

Mechanism and Firm Value

Abstract：This paper studies the influence of debt structure and bankruptcy decision mechanism on firm value. In view of two types of possible bankruptcy decision errors-the first type is “should go bankrupt but choose not to go bankrupt"，and the second type is “should not go bankrupt but choose to go bankrupt”-this paper finds that: first, the introduction of too many junior creditors or large creditors will lead to “too few”liquidation， increasing the probability of the first type of errors; On the contrary, if too many senior creditors or small creditors are introduced, it will lead to “too many”liquidation and increase the probability of the second type of errors. The optimal debt structure depends on the balance of the two effects. Second, a low critical value of the voting at creditors' meetings will increase the probability of the first type of error, while a high critical value will increase the probability of the second type of error. The optimal bankruptcy decision mechanism should be adjusted according to the firm with different debt structure characteristics, so that the creditors who can make the optimal decision become the decisive role in the voting. This paper provides a general theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between debt structure, bankruptcy decision mechanism and firm value.

Key Words：Debt Structure Bankruptcy ProcedureCorporate Governance Bankruptey Law

摘要：作为社会科学中的大伞构念之一,“共享经济”目前内涵不清、边界不明。维护共享经济构念的严谨性、厘清其内涵与边界必须以深刻地理解共享经济现象的本质为前提。本文以比较方法为基本分析工具,以交易作为分析的出发点和基本单位,运用组态视角下的类型学策略,建构了一个由交易三大核心要素的一阶维度构成的交易组态一般分析框架,并据此揭示了共享经济的本质。共享经济本质上是资源的间断性或非间断性连续使用者为获取经济利益、暂时性地让渡资源可逆性使用权的特殊市场交易现象;作为交易边缘要素,互联网通过改变交易时间和场所、提高交易速度、减少中间环节等,降低了交易费用,进而影响了共享经济的边界。

关键词：共享经济;交易;组态

Title：The Essence of The Sharing Economy: A Perspective of Transaction Configuration

Abstract：As one of the umbrella constructs in social science，“sharing economy” is currently unclear in connotation and boundary. To maintain the rigor of the construction of sharing economy and clarify its connotation and boundary, it is necessary to deeply understand the essence of sharing economy. This paper, employing comparative method as the basic analytical tool and transaction as the starting point and basic unit of the analysis，constructs a general analysis framework of transaction configurations consisting of first-order dimensions of three core elements of transaction with the typology strategy from the perspective of configuration， and accordingly reveals the essence of the sharing economy. The Sharing economy is a special market transaction phenomenon in which the punctuated or non-punctuated continuous users of resources temporarily transfer the reversible access of resources for economic benefits. The sharing economy is a subset of the rental economy,or, more accurately, a subset of the short-term rental economy. As a transactional peripheral element, the internet reduces transaction costs by changing the time and place of transactions, improving transaction speed,and reducing intermediate links,thus affecting the boundary of the sharing economy.

Key Words：Sharing Economy Transaction Configuration

摘要：由交易技术和制度变革驱动的大众广告向计算广告和智能广告等数字广告的转型对数字红利的生产和分配产生了重要影响。本文将广告转型视为分工网络的演进,运用新兴古典超边际分析和数值模拟方法,揭示大众广告向计算广告和智能广告转型的分工网络演进机理,解释这一技术和制度结构变迁对社会福利的影响效应。研究发现,广告信息与受众的匹配方式、免广告干扰服务的供给方式及受众与广告平台的交互方式构成了大众广告与计算广告和智能广告分工网络的核心区别;当分工网络中最终产品和免广告干扰服务的综合学习成本很高时,智能广告将成为均衡分工模式,而当这一综合学习成本较低时,由交易技术和制度双重进步驱动的市场交易效率的持续改进将推动大众广告向计算广告和智能广告的分工模式转型;专业化经济程度越高的广告主越会将创意水平更高的广告信息通过计算广告或智能广告模式实现与专业化受众的智能化精准匹配;广告的智能化转型通过提高劳动生产率、优化劳动力资源配置、扩张市场规模、提升网络连接价值和人均真实收入等促进了经济社会数字红利的提升。本文不仅从交易效率和分工网络扩张的视角提供了对广告模式转型新的理论解释,而且对促进广告行业交易制度革新和高质量发展具有现实启示价值。

关键词：数字广告;交易制度;分工网络;社会福利;超边际分析

Title：Transaction Efficiency,Digital——An Inframarginal General Equilibrium Analysis of the Advertising and Social Welfare Evolution of the Division of Labor Networks

Abstract： The transition from mass advertising to digital advertising which is driven by the change of transactional technology and institutional has important influenceon the production and distribution of digital dividends. This article regards advertising transformation as the evolution process of the division of labor, and uses the new classical inframarginal analysis models and numerical simulation methods, reveals the evolution mechanism of the division of labor in the transformation of mass advertising to computing advertising and intelligent advertising, and explains the impact of this structural change on digital welfare effect. The study found that the way of matching advertising information with the audience, the way of providing free advertising interference services, and the way the audience interacts with the advertising platform constitute the core difference between mass advertising and computing advertising and intelligent advertising division network; when the division of labor network in the final product and free When the comprehensive leaning cost of advertising interference services is high, smart advertising will become a balanced division of labor, and when this comprehensive learning cost is low, continuous improvement in market transaction efficiency which is driven by the change of transactional technology and institutional will promote the transformation of mass advertising to a division of computing advertising and smart advertising;Advertisers with a higher degree of specialization economy will use advertising information with a higher creative level to achieve intelligent and precise matching with professional audiences through computational advertising or intelligent advertising models; the evolution of advertising division of labor network can promote labor productivity and labor resource allocation Efficiency,market scale effect,network connection value and real income per capita increase in digital welfare effects. This article not only provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding the transformation of advertising model, but also has practical enlightenment value for promoting the high-quality development of the advertising industry and economy.

Key Words：Digital AdvertisingTrading System Division of Labor Network Social Welfare Inframarginal Analysis

摘要：信用监管是推进我国社会信用体系建设,提升国家现代化治理效能的重要举措。本文以2011～2019年的248个地级市作为研究样本,利用国家信息中心商务所发布的《中国城市商业信用环境指数蓝皮书》中报告的地级市商业信用环境指数衡量地级市信用监管的水平,考察信用监管对吸引外商直接投资的重要作用。实证研究表明:信用监管的实施对外商直接投资的流入存在显著的正向作用,这一作用效果主要通过提升地区的创新创业水平实现,且因区域、城市规模上的差异存在异质性。同时,地区数字化发展水平对信用监管作用的实现存在着显著的支撑作用,法治环境对信用监管也存在显著的协同效应。因此,需要筑牢信用监管的数字化基础,完善信用监管立法,构建更加法治、诚信、高效的营商环境,从而形成吸引外资新优势,推动开放型经济高质量发展。

关键词：信用监管;外商直接投资;法治

Title：Digital Empowerment，Credit Supervision and Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract：Credit supervision is an important measure to promote the construction of China's social credit system and improve the efficiency of national modern governance. This paper takes 248 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2019 as a research sample, and uses the commercial credit environment index of prefecture-level cities reported in the “Blue Book of China’s Urban Commercial Credit Environment Index”issued by the State InformationCenter for Commerce to measure the level of credit supervision in prefecture-level cities, and examine the important role of credit regulation in economic development. Empirical research shows that: the implementation of credit supervision has a significant positive effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment. This effect is mainly achieved by improving the level of innovation and entrepreneurship in the region, and there is heterogeneity due to differences in the size of regions and cities. At the same time, the level of regional digital development plays a significant supporting role in the realization of the role of credit supervision， and the rule of law environment also has a significant synergistic effect with credit supervision. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a solid digital foundation for credit supervision， improve credit supervision legislation,and build a more legal, honest， and efficient business environment, so as to form new advantages in attracting foreign investment and promote the high-quality development of an open economy.

Key Words：Credit Supervision Foreign Direct InvestmentRule of Law

摘要：本文分析了数字经济、制度质量与产业聚集之间的复杂关系。研究表明,数字经济对产业聚集的影响并非一成不变,当企业的数字化升级更多依赖于外部建设时,数字经济对产业聚集的影响是消极的,而且会随着制度质量的提高和数字基建的逐步完备愈加强烈;当企业越来越多地依赖内部数字化建设时,数字经济对产业聚集的作用转为积极作用。在这一过程中,制度质量表现出非线性的调节作用——当制度质量较低时,其在数字经济和产业聚集之间起到的作用为负;随着制度质量的提高,这种负向作用会逐渐减弱;在制度质量达到一定水平之后,其作用将转为正向激励。这一研究结论呈现了数字经济在不同制度质量下对产业聚集的不同作用,对于产业组织如何更充分地实现数字要素价值、享受数字经济发展红利具有重要的现实意义。

关键词：数字经济;制度质量;产业聚集;调节中介效应

Title：Digital Economy,Institutional Quality and Industrial Agglomeration: An Empirical Study

Abstract：This paper delves into the intricate relationship between the digital economy , institutional quality，and industrial agglomeration. The study reveals that the impact of the digital economy on industrial agglomeration is variable. When enterprises rely heavily on external sources for their digital transformation，the digital economy has a negative effect on industrial agglomeration. Furthermore, the negative effect is intensified by higher institutional quality and more advanced digital infrastructure. The role of the digital economy in industry aggregation will only become positive when companies increasingly rely on internal digital construction. In this process, institutional quality exhibits a non-linear moderating effect. Its role in the relationship between the digital economy and industrial agglomeration is negative at low institutional quality, which gradually weakens as institutional quality improves. When institutional quality reaches a certain threshold level, its role becomes a positive incentive. These findings provide crucial insights into the diverse impacts of the digital economy on industrial agglomeration，subject to variations in institutional quality. It is highly significant for industrial organizations to leverage digital factors and fully benefit from digital economy development.

Key Words：Digital Economy Institutional Quality Industrial Aggregation Moderating Intermediary Effects

摘要：本文以我国某省“TS”系列人才工程为例,研究计划型人才管理制度如何影响地区经济增长。首先,本文利用固定效应模型估计发现,该人才工程对经济增长有显著的促进作用,且结果通过了内生性检验和稳健性检验;其次,中介效应模型结果表明,创新能力在人才促进地区经济增长的过程中发挥了重要的中介效应,该中介效应在总效应中的占比为20.17%,通过了5%的显著性检验;最后,本文从提高人才增量和人才利用效率等角度提出相应的政策建议。

关键词：人才管理制度;创新能力;经济增长

Title：Planned Talent Management System，Innovation  Ability and Regional Economic Growth

Abstract：

This article takes the“TS” series talent project in a province of our country as an example to study how the planned talent management system affects regional economic growth. Firstly,the fixed-effect model is used to estimate that the talent project has a significant role in promoting economic growth, and the results pass the endogenous test and robustness test. Secondly, the results of the mediating effect model show that innovation ability has a mediating effect between talents and regional economic growth,the mediating effect accounts for 20.17% of the total effect, which has passed the 5% significance test. Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the perspective of improving talent increment and talent utilization efficiency.

Key Words：Talent Management System Innovation Ability Economic Growth

摘要：党的二十大报告对实现高质量发展进行战略部署时指出,要“着力提高全要素生产率”。依托自贸试验区建设开展的具有中国特色的“制度创新”探索,不仅具有既有理论研究所揭示的制度质量提升和变迁的一般特征,而且具有“因地制宜,差异探索”的制度质量提升的域观式特征。上述双重特征对提升城市全要素生产率具有促进作用,从具体的作用机制来看,主要通过提高城市创新能力、促进城市产业结构优化升级以及优化政府财政资源配置、提高财政科技支出三个机制,推动城市全要素生产率提升。本文以理论分析为先导,并利用机器学习文本分析方法,在对自贸试验区制度创新指数进行量化评估的基础之上,采用2013～2020年各自贸试验区所在城市面板数据,基于双向固定效应法实证分析了自贸试验区制度创新对于全要素生产率的现实影响,实证结果证实了上述理论假说的正确性。本文研究不仅从自贸试验区制度创新层面拓展了城市全要素生产率影响因素分析,而且对我国如何利用自贸试验区制度创新进一步提高城市全要素生产率、助推我国高质量发展也有重要启示意义。

关键词：自贸试验区;制度创新;城市全要素生产率

Title：Why the System Innovation of Pilot Free Trade Zone Improves Urban Total Factor Productivity

Abstract：

The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we should “focus on improving total factor productivity " when making strategic plans for achieving high-quality development. Based on the construction of pilot free trade zones, the exploration of “institutional innovation” with Chinese characteristics not only has the general characteristics of institutional quality improvement and change revealed by the existing theoretical research, but also has the regional characteristics of “adapting to local conditions and exploring differences” of institutional quality improvement. The above dual features can promote the improvement of urban global factor productivity. From the perspective of specific mechanism, the improvement of urban total factor productivity can be promoted mainly through three mechanisms: improving urban innovation capacity, promoting the optimization and upgrading of urban industrial structure, and optimizing the allocation of government financial resources to improve financial science and technology expenditure. Guided by theoretical analysis and using the machine learning text analysis method,this paper quantitatively evaluates the institutional innovation index of pilot free trade zones and empirically analyzes the practical impact of institutional innovation of pilot free trade zones on total factor productivity by using the panel data of the cities where the pilot free trade zones are located from 2013 to2020 based on the two-way fixed effect method. The empirical results confirm the correctness of the above theoretical hypothesis. This study not only expands the analysis of influencing factors of urban total factor productivity from the level of institutional innovation of free trade pilot zones, but also has important implications for how to use institutional innovation of free trade pilot zones to further improve urban total factor productivity and boost our high-quality development.

Key Words：Pilot Free Trade Zone Institutional Innovation Urban Total Factor Productivity

摘要： 本文使用四期中国健康与养老追踪调查(China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,CHARLS)数据,采用工具变量法等计量方法,研究社会基本养老保险对农村居民劳动参与的影响问题,为养老保险对劳动参与影响的替代效应和收入效应提供理论解释和实证依据,并对比居民和职工两种养老保险的政策效果。研究表明:基本养老保险对劳动参与的影响是替代效应和收入效应并存的。在参保缴费阶段,替代效应较收入效应占据主导地位,参与城乡居民养老保险会增加农村居民的劳动参与。在养老金领取阶段,养老保险仅存在收入效应,参保将促使农村老年人退出劳动力市场。相较于城乡居保,职工养老保险对农村老年人的保障效果更好,职工养老保险对养老金领取阶段农村老年人劳动参与率的降低幅度大于城乡居保;城乡居保主要影响农村居民的农业劳动参与,而职工养老保险对农村居民的农业和非农劳动参与均表现出显著的负向影响。养老保险;劳动参与;替代效应;收入效应

关键词：住房公积金制度;再分配效应分解;受益公平性

Title：The Effect of Social Pension on Labor Force Participation in Rural China:Income Effect or Substitution Effect?

Abstract：Based on the four-wave panel data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2011-2018，via instrument variable and other methods, this paper studies the impact of social pension on labor force participation in rural China. We provide theoretical explanations and empirical evidence for the substitution effect and income effect of social pension on labor force participation, and focus on comparing two pension systems between workers and residents. The results are as follows. Both substitution effect and income effect are shown in the effect of social pensions on people's labor force participation in rural China. In the pension payment stage, the substitution effect will dominant the income effect. Social Pension has a positive impact on people's labor force participation. In the pension-receiving stage,there is only an income effect; pension programs will prompt the rural elderly to withdraw from the labor market. Compared with social endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,the worker's basic endowment insurance has a better effect on protecting the elderly in rural areas. The labor force participation rate reduced by worker's pension is much higher than the resident's one. The pension for residents mainly affects people's labor force participation in the agricultural sector, while the worker's pension has a significant negative impact on both the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.

Key Words：PensionLabor Force ParticipationIncome Effect Substitution Effect