我院2007级博士研究生陈言与上海交通大学张严博士合作的论文“a Note on Tariff Policy, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations”被国际顶级宏观经济学期刊Macroeconomic Dynamics接受。在文章中，他们在一个含有进口能源的开放经济模型中分析了关税政策与宏观经济波动的关系，首创性地发现：开放经济下关税政策可以导致内生经济波动，从而使得经济不稳定。

下面是此篇论文的摘要。

A NOTE ON TARIFF POLICY, INCREASING RETURNS, AND ENDOGENOUS FLUCTUATIONS

We show that the introduction of a constant tariff or subsidy levied on foreign energy can lead to a rich set of endogenous fluctuations around the unique steady state, including stable 2-, 4-, 8-, and 15-cycles, quasiperiodic orbits, and chaos. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model with social increasing returns to scale. Numerical exercises could be viewed from a methodological perspective as illustrating that capital income taxes and tariffs are equivalent in generating endogenous fluctuations because Guo and Lansing [Guo, J.T. and K.J. Lansing (2002) Fiscal policy, increasing returns and endogenous fluctuations. Macroeconomic Dynamics 6, 633–664] show that a constant capital tax or subsidy has the same effect on the model dynamics in a one-sector closed economy.

Keywords: Tariff Policy, Global Indeterminacy, Chaos